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「超級爆發」有多爆？呵呵呵！！謝謝分享了！！

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「超級爆發」這個中文形容詞, 感覺上驚嚇性強一點, 故時常給人濫用, 制造恐慌o

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「超級爆發」!!!

欣 : 「超級爆發」這個中文形容詞, 感覺上驚嚇性強一點, 故時常給人濫用, 制造恐慌o很多西方國家, 較少用"super spreading", 較多用"highly contagious"這類字眼o

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十分同意Raymond所講的,雖然不是epidemiology的研究.可惜大學裡有能力的researchers好多也不是好的prof,就是這個原因.

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「超級爆發」有多爆？呵呵呵！！謝謝分享了！！

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「超級爆發」這個中文形容詞, 感覺上驚嚇性強一點, 故時常給人濫用, 制造恐慌othanks!

TOKYO, May 4 (Xinhua) -- Thanks to joint efforts by both countries, economic and trade relations between China and Japan have registered rapid growth since China adopted the reform and opening-up policy in 1978. As each other's key trade partner, the two nations have become increasingly interdependent. Japan has long been China's most important trade partner. During the 11years since 1993, Japan had been China's biggest trade partner. In 2007 China was Japan's biggest trade partner, while Japan became China's third biggest trade partner, with their two-way trade keeping two-digit growth. According to statistics released by China's Ministry of Commerce, two-way trade between the two countries climbed by 13.8 percent year-on-year to 236 billion U.S. dollars in 2007. Japan became China's biggest exporter and its fourth biggest export market. The growing bilateral trade volume has also led to changing trade pattern between China and Japan,as mechanical and electrical products with higher technology content have gradually taken the place of products with low value added such as raw materials and textiles. 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Poisson Distribution是用來分析 Poisson Process 的發生率。Poisson Process 簡到係人都明的說法係，Rare event. 。例如 AED 每晚的撞車入院人數。也因此這個 Distribution 是 Right skewed 的。
R0 是指 Basic reproductive No. ，但係當人人有 flu 時都會去醫，而政府又會做事去控制時，到時就唔會再講 R0 ，會講 R ，即是 Effective reproductive No.

Raymond WOO :
HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS同SUPER-SPREADING是兩個不同意思的詞，後者是醫療統計學的專有名詞，有特定的DEFINITION，還是這兩三年才新興的專有名詞。
問題是，那群學者專家站在記者面前的時候，根本不知道大家不明白「SUPER-SPREADING EVENT」是什麼的一回事，大家就把「SUPER-SPREADING EVENT」等同「HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS」的超級版本。
專家們只慬得做研究，他們用了一個研究學上的字眼，他們想研究今次香港流感高峰是否個SUPERSPREADING EVENT，卻無視大家根本不知道這個字是什麼，結果引起更多不必要的恐慌...

謝謝指教o

一般沒有醫學常識的平民百姓, 相信很難辨別出"super-spreading"和"highly contagious"有什麼不同, 亦不會去理會這是否屬於一個醫學研究的專用名詞, 他們所關心的就是病毒是否有高度傳染和是否擴散到一發不可收拾的程度,這些訊息有賴透過傳媒得悉, 因此, 無論發言那位, 還是執筆寫新聞那位, 所選用的字眼足以影響民眾接收到不同的訊息, 此外, 有時將英文的醫學專有名詞照字面翻譯做中文, 可能巳經失去了原有的意思, 增加誤解o

十分同意Raymond所講的,雖然不是epidemiology的研究,但本人也從事research的,常常在conference裡看到那些專家們用很多學術上的專有名詞,尤其是醫學分科那麼細,莫講話大眾,連同行也會誤解,但他們往往自顧自的在討論,在Q&A時才發覺問題多多,或許待在研究室太久,欠缺與人溝通的機會,才引致習慣自說自話的...
但communication skills真的很重要,就算成為學術權威,也要有能力和其他學者交流才行,甚至教導下一代,這才是真正有影響力的學者
可惜大學裡有能力的researchers好多也不是好的prof,就是這個原因

欣：

HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS同SUPER-SPREADING是兩個不同意思的詞，後者是醫療統計學的專有名詞，有特定的DEFINITION，還是這兩三年才新興的專有名詞。

問題是，那群學者專家站在記者面前的時候，根本不知道大家不明白「SUPER-SPREADING EVENT」是什麼的一回事，大家就把「SUPER-SPREADING EVENT」等同「HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS」的超級版本。

專家們只慬得做研究，他們用了一個研究學上的字眼，他們想研究今次香港流感高峰是否個SUPERSPREADING EVENT，卻無視大家根本不知道這個字是什麼，結果引起更多不必要的恐慌。

星屑，看來是時候你同記者講一講…那群專家根本就無COMMUNICATION SKILL…記者又胡亂炒作，最後只會引起更多無謂的恐慌。

「超級爆發」這個中文形容詞, 感覺上驚嚇性強一點, 故時常給人濫用, 制造恐慌o
很多西方國家, 較少用"super spreading", 較多用"highly contagious"這類字眼o

我都認同，superspreading這個字眼譯得不倫不類。我覺得譯作「超級擴散」、「超級傳播」可能會好一點。

Superspreading首次見於討論沙士的醫學流行病學的期刊，開頭未有一個確實的定義。北京疾病控制及預防中心在2003年研究沙士傳播模式時，為superspreading events的定義是由一個源頭傳給八個或以上的接觸者。而美國加州大學的Lloyd-Smith於2005年的NATURE中將之定義
「individuals that infect more than the 99th percentile of a Poisson distribution with mean equal to R0」。

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7066/abs/nature04153.html;jsessionid=81C86BE5089B08BA19BA0AE0F9B9E6D4

簡單而言，任何一個人患上傳染疾病，都會有機會傳給一定數量的人。這數值被稱為BASIC REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER，即是R0。中文可以稱為基本傳染數，又或基本傳染比率。

當R0少於一的時候，即代表每名病人傳給少於一個人，那麼該傳染病理應會慢慢消失；相反，當R0大過一的時候，即代表傳染病正在擴散。

當傳染病開始爆發的時候，R0就自然大於一，但隨著群體開始得到抵抗力，又或病者死亡而無力傳染其他人，R0就會慢慢下降。

流感年年都會爆發，年年流感爆發的R0都有所不同。今年的R0是多少，其實是非常隨機的。在統計學上，我們會用POISSON DISTRIBUTION來分析隨機事件的平均發生率。如果今次R0的數值多於平均R0值的99TH PERCENTILE，那即是代表今次傳染病中，源頭感染別人數目之多，不能純粹用「隨機發生」來解釋，這時，這感染就會被定義為SUPER-SPREADING EVENT。

Superspreading event的案例不限見於沙士，也發生在討論西尼羅河病毒症(west nile virus)、Q型熱(q-fever)。

借星屑醫生一網寫這些出來，希望你龐大的讀者群，傳達有用的資料。

最後，星屑醫生你所引的JOURNAL的作者，至少有兩名是中大社區醫學的教授。雖然今次政府只是找港大的學者幫手調查此爆發，但我覺得作為學者，亦有責任向大家解釋當中的技術細節，以釋疑慮。